A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about possible shortages of these important medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, the demand for these medications has surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, major names in this market, are currently facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a physician between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo highlighted this trend as a significant public health shift, indicating that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these drugs for obesity treatment. However, this could jeopardize access for diabetes patients who also rely on these medications.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although this data may not fully represent the national landscape. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to aid in weight loss, with users reportedly shedding up to 26% of their body weight.
The explosive growth in sales has turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into some of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the high demand has resulted in challenges for patients attempting to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to boost production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.