A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescribing of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, contrasted with a decline in prescriptions for those with diabetes. The researchers caution that this shift might lead to potential shortages of these essential medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which imitate a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. Their usage expanded in 2021 when the FDA authorized Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, there has been a surge in demand for these medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, presenting challenges for manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to keep up with production.
The research team, including experts from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while those without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests an increasing recognition by healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “Nevertheless, this trend raises alarms regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure diabetes patients have continued access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape. Recently, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the high demand has generated difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested substantial resources to expand their production capabilities.
Market analysts from Morgan Stanley forecast that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, projecting that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. will utilize these drugs by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.