A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while the number of prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. This shift has raised concerns among researchers about a potential shortage of these medications.
Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. The landscape shifted in 2021 when the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Since then, drug manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects a growing acknowledgment of the medications’ benefits for addressing obesity, highlighting a significant shift in public health. However, she cautioned that this increase in non-diabetic prescriptions could exacerbate shortages and affect access for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, showing potential weight loss of up to 26% for users.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical firms due to soaring sales of these medications. However, the increasing demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to boost production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will be using these drugs.