A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021, prompting increased interest in these drugs for obesity management.
Research conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes plummeted from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented on the implications of this data, highlighting that while healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, the shift necessitates vigilance to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape. The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their effectiveness in appetite suppression, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
This growing demand has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, many patients face challenges in obtaining their prescriptions due to the high demand. Both companies have committed billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations for about 31.5 million users in the U.S., representing roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.