A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers have expressed concern over the implications of this shift, particularly regarding potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA extended their use in 2021 to include weight loss treatments, notably with the approval of Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for this class of medications, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health change. However, he also highlighted concerns about ensuring access to these drugs for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to aid weight loss, achieving reductions of up to 26% in body weight.
Sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the surge in demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to boost their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will soar to $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.