The percentage of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, as revealed by a recent study in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
This study raises alarms regarding potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) expanded the approval of the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for these GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The analysis, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations, reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated a decline in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, signaling a significant public health change. However, she also expressed concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these drugs.
The study relied on data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with some users experiencing a weight loss of up to 26%.
The booming sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to fulfill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested substantial resources to increase their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.