A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing number of prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that helps manage blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight management with the approval of Wegovy.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the escalating demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records for 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates an increased recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, contributing to a significant shift in public health. However, this trend also heightens the concern for ensuring access to these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study relied on data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not represent the national landscape comprehensively.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, leading users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the top pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has complicated access for some patients. Both companies have committed billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected increase in adoption rates to approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.