A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend has raised concerns regarding the potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were initially designed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 medications, including Wegovy for weight loss, in 2021.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy surging demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million American patients who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, emphasized the significance of this shift, stating that it highlights the growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also highlights the need to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.
The study’s data was sourced from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not be representative on a national scale. In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 medications have gained popularity, with studies showing potential weight loss of up to 26% for users.
This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the increased demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.