A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concerns that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to imitate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 medications, such as Wegovy, for weight management in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, key players in the GLP-1 market, are currently facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center researchers using medical records from 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023, found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized the implications of this data, highlighting a significant public health shift toward using these medications for obesity treatment. However, he cautioned about the potential for medication shortages and the importance of ensuring diabetic patients retain access to these essential treatments.
The study’s data, sourced from healthcare software company TriNetX, may not be fully representative on a national scale. The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity, reportedly enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
Rising sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. Unfortunately, the high demand has made it difficult for many patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to scale up production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with approximately 31.5 million Americans—nearly 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.