A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in prescriptions of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about a potential shortage of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite. Originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since then, pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with soaring demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions studied the medical records of 45 million Americans who had medical visits from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo expressed concern over the implications of this trend, stating that while healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, it also highlights the necessity to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.
The data for this study was derived from the healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not represent national trends comprehensively.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their effectiveness in appetite suppression, with users reporting weight loss of up to 26%. The significant sales growth of these drugs has made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical firms. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, or around 9% of the population.