A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study authors express concern over this shift, which could result in shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and decreases appetite. Originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their approval in 2021 to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Currently, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing production challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. In contrast, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the findings, noting the growing recognition of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. She also warned of the implications this trend may have on medication availability for diabetes patients.
The study gathered its data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally, although high demand has created challenges in fulfilling prescriptions. Both firms have invested significantly in increasing their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the U.S. population, expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.