A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite. Originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval in 2021 for the weight-loss drug Wegovy. Since that time, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and affiliated institutions evaluated the medical records of 45 million Americans who had seen a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a significant decrease in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Simultaneously, the share of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that this trend reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a notable shift in public health. However, it also raises alarms about the potential for medication shortages and the critical need to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, but acknowledges that its findings may not fully represent the national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and the ability to facilitate significant weight loss of up to 26%.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the heightened demand has created difficulties for many patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to enhance their production capabilities.
According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, the global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030. They also forecast that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will be using these medications.