A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes decline. This change has raised concerns over potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA additionally approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, major players in the GLP-1 market, are currently facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and several other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show a drop in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Simultaneously, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study’s data were sourced from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not reflect the entire population accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight loss benefits, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in usage has significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in fulfilling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption by approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, which represents about 9% of the population.