A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable trend: the proportion of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. With the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, these medications have gained popularity beyond their initial purpose.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers of GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for these treatments.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis indicated a decline in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, pointed out that this data reflects a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she cautioned that this trend could lead to medication shortages, impacting access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire nation.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained traction due to their appetite-suppressing effects and ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these medications has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both firms have invested heavily to increase production to meet demand.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also anticipate that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—will adopt these medications.