A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and decrease appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, competitors in the GLP-1 drug market, are currently struggling to keep pace with the increasing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from over 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed a significant decline in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to more than 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a notable shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises critical concerns regarding medication shortages and ensuring that diabetes patients continue to access these treatments.”
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not be fully representative of the national population.
In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their side effects that suppress appetite, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in having prescriptions filled. Both companies have committed substantial investments to enhance production capabilities for these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., accounting for roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.