A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions being issued to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decrease in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. This shift raises concerns about the potential for shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, initially designed to manage type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking hormones that regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite. The FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 drugs in 2021 to include Wegovy for weight loss, leading to increased demand for these treatments.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are now facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, in order to meet the surging demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and various institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while those without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 medications for addressing obesity, representing a notable public health change. However, it also poses concerns regarding access for diabetes patients.
The study sourced its data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have made them popular, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for many patients. To address this, both companies are investing heavily in scaling up production.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030. They also forecast that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, could adopt these medications by 2035.