A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has sparked concern over potential shortages of these critical treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially intended for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the heightened demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health change. However, it also raises alarms about ensuring access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although this data may not represent the national landscape accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. The surge in demand has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Unfortunately, this high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, projecting that about 31.5 million Americans, roughly 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.