A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while the number of new prescriptions for those with diabetes is decreasing. The authors of the study express concerns over this shift, suggesting it could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Following this approval, pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers analyzing the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023 found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70%. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift,” noted Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, he also highlighted the need to ensure that diabetic patients continue to have access to these essential treatments.
Using data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which might not reflect national demographics, the study underscores the recent popularity of GLP-1 drugs due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in GLP-1 drug sales has significantly increased the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, the high demand has created challenges for patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have poured billions into increasing production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with U.S. user adoption expected to grow to approximately 31.5 million people, equating to about 9% of the population, by 2035.