A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded the approval of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes, leading to increased demand. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet this surging demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and affiliated institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, mentioned that this shift suggests healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the effectiveness of these medications for obesity treatment, which raises concerns about ensuring access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, though this data may not fully represent national trends. Recently, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to weight losses of up to 26%.
The rapid rise in sales has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients securing their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and anticipate that around 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the U.S. population, could be using these medications by 2035.