A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend where an increasing number of individuals without diabetes are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, operate by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA extended approvals to include Wegovy for weight loss. Subsequently, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among others, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, indicated that this data reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers regarding the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, signaling a significant public health shift. However, there are concerns about ensuring continued access to these drugs for patients with diabetes.
Using data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, the study’s findings are not necessarily representative of the entire U.S. population. Over recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have made them increasingly popular, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of GLP-1 drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs will grow to $105 billion by 2030, estimating that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, will use them by 2035.