A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a notable shift in the prescription trends for GLP-1 drugs, which are commonly used to treat diabetes. The findings reveal that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed these medications is increasing, while the number of new prescriptions for diabetic patients is declining.
The researchers express concerns that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these vital treatments. GLP-1 medications function by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Initially, these drugs were approved exclusively for treating type 2 diabetes, but following the FDA’s approval in 2021 of Wegovy for weight loss, their usage has expanded.
Both pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing difficulties in keeping up with the surging demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the findings, stating that the data suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, this also raises alarms regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight loss capabilities, with users reportedly able to shed up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as highly valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the heightened demand has created challenges for some patients trying to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies have committed billions of dollars to enhance their production capacities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with projections suggesting that about 31.5 million people in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.