A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those diagnosed with the condition. The study raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded their use with the approval of Wegovy for weight loss. Consequently, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift suggests healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health change. However, this trend also raises alarms about medication availability for diabetes patients.
The study used data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire national population. GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies showing they can lead to weight loss of up to 26%.
As demand for these medications surges, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has created challenges for many patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in boosting production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.