A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in prescribing GLP-1 drugs for individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded their approval to include Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the two major manufacturers of GLP-1 medications—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—are facing challenges in keeping up with the increasing demand for these treatments.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis showed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, she emphasized the potential risk of medication shortages and the importance of ensuring diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. This booming market has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has resulted in difficulties for many patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to boost production.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the U.S. population, expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.