A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of non-diabetic individuals being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these vital medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss treatments like Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet the increased demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises concerns about possible medication shortages and the necessity of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, reportedly helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has significantly increased the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, yet the high demand has also led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to enhance their drug production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.