A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, showing that the number of individuals without diabetes receiving these medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises alarms about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic hormones that help regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially designed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, since the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand for these medications has surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with this heightened demand for GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to above 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 treatments for obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, she also expressed concerns about ensuring that patients with diabetes maintain access to these essential medications.
The study’s data was drawn from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population. Over the past few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, this high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in scaling up production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. expected to adopt these medications by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.