A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend: the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The increase in GLP-1 prescriptions among non-diabetic patients raises alarms about potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023, finding that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study’s data came from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not represent the entire national demographic. The popularity of GLP-1 medications has surged due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
This boom in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that by 2035, about 31.5 million people, or roughly 9% of the U.S. population, will be using these medications.