A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns over the potential shortage of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes management, the Food and Drug Administration expanded their use in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight loss.
As demand for these drugs has surged, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough to meet the needs of the growing patient population.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider from 2011 to 2023. They discovered a decrease in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications in addressing obesity. However, she also emphasized the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients amid rising demand.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not reflect a fully nationally representative sample.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties, helping users achieve weight loss of up to 26%. The explosive sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but this high demand has made it difficult for some patients to fulfill their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—by 2035.