A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concerns that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic hormones that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were originally designed for type 2 diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss, leading to increased prescriptions among non-diabetic patients.
Companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing sufficient supplies of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are acknowledging the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises urgent concerns about medication shortages and ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these essential treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, yet this high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to enhance production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.