A recent study in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes who are prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially designed for type 2 diabetes management. However, the FDA’s 2021 approval of Wegovy for weight loss has shifted their use. Consequently, pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to meet the surging demand for GLP-1 treatments like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The analysis, which involved the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023, found a striking drop in new GLP-1 prescriptions for type 2 diabetes, falling from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the portion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, indicated this shift highlights a broader recognition of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, alongside concerns about ensuring continued access for diabetic patients.
While GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and ability to facilitate significant weight loss, they have also created challenges for patients seeking to fill their prescriptions, as both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk struggle to keep up with demand. Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the market for these drugs could reach $105 billion globally by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the U.S. population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.