A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for diabetic patients have seen a decline. This change has raised concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications imitate a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and decreases appetite. Originally approved for managing type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations examined medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the proportion of non-diabetic new users increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this situation also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and access for diabetes patients.”
The study’s findings were based on data from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%.
This surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to increase production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and expect that about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.