The number of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The study raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments as GLP-1 drugs—initially approved for type 2 diabetes—are now being used more frequently for weight management. This shift follows the FDA’s 2021 approval of Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug for weight loss.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the soaring demand for their GLP-1 products, which include Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans over a span from 2011 to 2023 and discovered a decline in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, falling from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also highlights concerns regarding medication shortages and the need to prioritize access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape. The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have contributed to their popularity, having been shown to assist users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Despite these successes, the high demand has complicated access for some patients needing their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications will reach $105 billion by 2030 and that adoption in the U.S. could grow to approximately 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the population, by 2035.