A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concerns over potential shortages of these medications due to the shift in prescription patterns.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss treatments, particularly with Wegovy.
Currently, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing a sufficient supply of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the surging demand.
Research conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from almost 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests an increasing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment but also raises questions about access for diabetes patients.
While the data originates from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends, the past few years have seen a surge in the popularity of GLP-1 drugs due to their effectiveness in promoting weight loss—users have been able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing billions of dollars to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.