A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which were originally authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curbs appetite. The FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, a category that includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this data shows a significant shift in healthcare providers recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she also highlighted the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients have continued access to these medications amid rising demand.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire population accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, reportedly helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surging sales of these drugs have led to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk becoming among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested substantial amounts to increase their production of these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, about 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these medications.