A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are on the decline. Researchers are raising alarms about the potential for shortages of these popular treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, since the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand has surged. This increase has led companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to struggle with production levels of their GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The authors of the study, which analyzed medical records for 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023, found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, indicated that this reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the medications’ benefits for obesity treatment, but also raised concerns about ensuring access for diabetes patients.
The data was drawn from the healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have contributed to their popularity, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide, but the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies are making significant investments to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.