A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant shift in the prescription of GLP-1 medications, with the percentage of people without diabetes being prescribed these drugs increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed data from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023, finding that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70%. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for type 2 diabetes, mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and decreases appetite. The FDA expanded their use in 2021, approving Wegovy for weight loss. As a result, competition between pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly has intensified, leading to difficulties in meeting the increasing demand for drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Study co-author Yee Hui Yeo commented on the implications of this trend, highlighting potential shortages and the necessity of ensuring access for diabetes patients. The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their effectiveness in promoting weight loss, with some users experiencing reductions of up to 26% in body weight.
The soaring demand has turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has resulted in challenges for some patients trying to fill prescriptions. Both companies are making substantial investments to increase production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.