A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, primarily designed to manage type 2 diabetes by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite, gained additional attention in 2021 when the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to meet the rising demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of those without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, he also highlighted the potential for medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients have access to these treatments.
The research utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not accurately represent the national population. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users often losing up to 26% of their body weight.
This surge in demand has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has led to challenges for patients trying to fill prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S., roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.