A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing production challenges as they strive to meet the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also underscores the need to ensure ongoing access to these treatments for diabetes patients due to potential shortages.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire U.S. population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The significant sales increase has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nonetheless, the soaring demand has created challenges for some patients in obtaining prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., about 9% of the population, expected to adopt these drugs by 2035.