A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend: the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline.
The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that helps control blood sugar levels and appetite. Originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, was granted FDA approval for weight loss in 2021.
Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the share of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this data reflects an increased recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits these medications offer for obesity treatment, signaling a significant public health shift. However, she expressed concern regarding the potential for medication shortages and emphasized the importance of ensuring access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing as much as 26% of their body weight. The surging sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. will adopt these treatments by 2035, accounting for approximately 9% of the population.