A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers are expressing concern over the potential scarcity of these medications as demand rises.
GLP-1 medications are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite. Originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, gained FDA approval for weight loss purposes in 2021.
Since this development, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy growing consumer demand.
The study, conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations, analyzed the health records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study, remarked that the data indicates a significant public health shift as more healthcare professionals recognize the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she also noted the potential for medication shortages and emphasized the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients still have access to these essential treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which might not accurately reflect the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this heightened demand has made it increasingly difficult for some patients to have their prescriptions filled. In response, both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts have projected that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.