A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded approval to include Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment for weight loss.
Since that time, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to produce enough GLP-1 medications—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to keep up with the rising demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Simultaneously, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift,” commented Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns regarding possible medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not be representative of the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the increased demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to boost their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with adoption expected to rise to approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—by 2035.