A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are on the decline. Researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs help regulate blood sugar levels and curb appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 when it authorized Wegovy for weight loss. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, which analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023, found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes surged from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift indicates greater recognition of the drugs’ benefits for obesity treatment, highlighting a significant public health change. However, there are concerns regarding ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study’s data came from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have led to rising popularity, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
As demand for these treatments skyrockets, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have emerged as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this increased demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to boost their production capabilities in response.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, which accounts for approximately 9% of the population.