A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which help regulate blood sugar and decrease appetite, were originally approved to treat type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight management. In response to the increasing demand, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are finding it challenging to produce sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate a decrease in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes has risen from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not reflect national trends accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and have shown the potential for users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has resulted in difficulties for patients in obtaining prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., representing about 9% of the population, by 2035.