A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, alongside a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. This shift raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone regulating blood sugar and reducing appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the Food and Drug Administration expanded their use by approving Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Since the FDA’s approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increased demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions conducted an analysis of medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the imperative to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have contributed to their popularity, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has created challenges for some patients trying to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significant resources to enhance production capabilities for these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that adoption will extend to approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, roughly 9% of the population.