A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, showing an increase in prescriptions for individuals without diabetes while the number of prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining.
Concerns are growing among researchers regarding potential shortages of these medications as the demand continues to rise. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough of these treatments, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They discovered a drop in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, juxtaposed with a rise in non-diabetic users from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, highlighted that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the medications’ benefits for treating obesity. However, it also raises alarms regarding potential medication shortages, emphasizing the importance of ensuring access for diabetic patients.
The study’s data was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a nationally representative sample. In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have made them increasingly popular, resulting in significant weight loss for users, up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this rising popularity has led to challenges for patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies have committed substantial investments to enhance production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. Their forecasts also indicate that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—may be using these drugs.