A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. Researchers are concerned that this trend could lead to shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA extended approval to Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the surge in demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that this trend indicates more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications in treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, the challenge remains to ensure that patients with diabetes can still access these vital treatments.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not reflect national trends accurately. The rising popularity of GLP-1 drugs for their appetite-suppressing effects has led to substantial weight loss for some users, reportedly up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. using these drugs by 2035, amounting to approximately 9% of the population.