A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions for individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes have decreased. This shift has raised alarms about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. The FDA expanded their usage in 2021 when it approved Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined healthcare records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.”
The data analyzed by the researchers was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing benefits, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created difficulties for many patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—expected to be using these drugs by 2035.