A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss, further driving demand. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers of GLP-1 medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are facing challenges in meeting this increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had a medical visit from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author, noted that this shift indicates an increasing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, but it also highlights the potential risk of medication shortages for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the national patient demographics accurately. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
This surge in demand has significantly boosted the valuations of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, now among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the heightened demand has complicated access for some patients needing their prescriptions filled. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.