A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The study authors caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these critical medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which function by imitating a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the Food and Drug Administration authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from over 45 million Americans who accessed healthcare between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% in 2019 to just over 70% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not be representative of the entire nation.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in demand has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but it has also made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing significantly to increase production capabilities for these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. expected to adopt these treatments by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.