A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for patients with diabetes have decreased. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these essential medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially developed for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. It was found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, remarked that the data indicates an increasing recognition among healthcare providers of the therapeutic benefits of these medications for obesity, marking a significant shift in public health practices. However, he expressed concerns about the implications for medication accessibility for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a nationally representative sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. As demand surges, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have emerged as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.