A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, concurrently with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. Researchers express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval in 2021, allowing the use of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight management.
Manufacturers, including Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are facing challenges in scaling production to meet the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, which involved the analysis of medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023, found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo noted that this trend indicates a significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the advantages of these medications in treating obesity. However, she emphasized the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these vital treatments.
The study’s data was sourced from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the national population accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite, leading to weight loss of up to 26%. This surge in demand has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has also complicated the ability for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to boost production levels.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with adoption rates in the U.S. expected to rise to 31.5 million individuals—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.